Conflict System

A Society Review Program

Written by Simon Allmer

Why We Fight

1. Unchecked Interests

When the people decide on war aren’t accountable to the others in their group, they can ignore some of the costs and agony of fighting. These leaders will take their group to war too frequently.

2. Intangible Incentives

There are times when committing violence delivers something valued, like vengeance or status or dominance. In other cases, violence is the sole path to the righteous ends.

3. Uncertainty

In war, people rarely know their enemies’ true strength or resolve with each side being able to bluff. The information uncertainty means that attacking is occasionally the best strategy.

4. Preemption

If a looming shift in power is large enough, incentives for the currently stronger party to destroy the other preemptively can be irresistible.

5. Misperceptions

Psychological biases and misconceptions against non-group members make peaceful solution more difficult.

Paths to Peace

1. Interdependence

Successful societies, and the groups within them, are intertwined economically, socially, and culturally.

2. Checks and Balances

Institutions can compel leaders to listen to the many over the few.

3. Rules and Enforcement

The state, the law, and social norms act as pacifiers within and through international systems, among groups.

4. Interventions

Once violence breaks out there is an available toolbox to restore peace: Punishing, Enforcing, Facilitating, Incentivizing, Socializing.

Conflict Classification

In order to assess the important disputes that have shaped our modern world, it is essential to use an intuitive framework. The Chronicle Conflict System aims to be a thermometer, dividing protracted disagreements into Hot- and Cold Conflicts.

Global War Fought on 5+ Continents First Global War
1756-1763
Continental War Fought on 4 Continents First Continental War
1688-1697
Strategic Terrorism War on Terror
2001-2021
Genocide Darfur Genocide
2003-Present
Internal War Taiping Rebellion
1850-1864
Interstate War American War of Independence
1775-1783
Complex Conflict
Armed Conflict = War
Cultural Conflict Cyprus Conflict
1955-1974
Economical Conflict International Iraq Sanctions
1990-2003
Technological Conflict Stuxnet Attack
2010
Geopolitical Conflict Arctic Race
2007-Present
Frozen Conflict No Peace Treaty Korean War
Frozen since 1953

Fatal Conflicts of the Modern Era

Fatal Conflicts are defined as such by meeting at least one of the three criteria:

  • Scope: Fought in 4 or more countries simultaneously.
  • Absolute Casualties: Exceeding the 750 000 mark.
  • Relative Casualties: Exceeding 10% of a states population.

Casualties refer to direct military and civilian deaths, excluding injuries or indirect deaths such as sickness. Forced starvation would be considered under casualties.

Visualization Key: 1 Figure = 100,000 Casualties

Because of this narrow definition, the 90% or 10 000 000 death rate among indigenous people during the European colonization of the Americas (1492-1691) due to disease is not included but shall be mentioned here for its historical significance.

Sources: Christopher Blattman (Why We Fight) and Hannes Rusch (The Logic of Human Intergroup Conflict) and UNdata.

This program was last updated on November 23 2025.